Will results be close to those of 97-A?

     Last year a number of liberal presbyteries changed the date for the vote on Amendment 00-O to early in the voting season. This year a number of conservative presbyteries have done the same with the vote on Amendment 01-A.
     It is clear that the results of the vote at the moment of this writing (2 yes -  20 no), are no indication of what will happen with 01-A. No trends can be discerned here.
     However, a trend seems to be emerging when we compare the voting behavior within each presbytery that has voted thus far, with their own votes on 96-B (proposal to add the Fidelity & Chastity clause to the Book of Order); and on 97-A (proposal to remove it again).
     In practically all of these presbyteries a higher proportion of the votes have been cast favoring "B" than before. The pattern looks more like that of the vote on 97-A than that on 96-B (and very different than that on 00-O, the proposal to add an explicit prohibition of blessings of same-sex unions to the Book of Order). A somewhat higher proportion of the votes within these presbyteries is on the side of B than was the case with the vote on 97-A.
     One presbytery has switched sides: it voted against adopting "B" in 1996/97 and in favor of removing it in 1997/98, but has now voted against removing it. Another presbytery voted against adopting "B", against removal of B in 1997/98, and voted again against removal (in other words, against 01-A)
     Is what we have seen thus far a reflection of the national mood? Will we see the same voting pattern nationwide? That remains to be seen, but if it is, the end result of the vote on 01-A will be close to that of 97-A, when the presbyteries voted against removal of "B" 57 - 114. It appears not unreasonable to expect a few presbyteries that voted in favor of removal in 1997 with a very narrow margin, to change sides, as one has done thus far. In that case, the margin will be somewhat greater than 57 - 114.
     Obviously, "predicting is difficult, especially as far as the future is concerned." Many factors come into play, maybe even this analysis might influence the voting behavior of some. So, this is not meant to be a prediction, but a tentative and best-guess attempt to take the national pulse, and to try and make sense out of the information we receive.
     For now the best indication of what the final result might be, much better than the accumulated totals, seems to be found in a comparison of the vote on 01-A with that on 97-A. Therefore we will use the following phrase, changing the numbers if and when presbyteries change sides, one way or the other:

"If the remaining presbyteries vote on 01-A as they did on 97-A, the final result will be the rejection of 01-A by about 56 - 116."

      We will change to a comparison with 96-B or 00-O, or stop comparing altogether whenever that seems warranted, and if that happens, we will tell what our reasons are.